Until October 2025, nobody knew exactly under what conditions Russell would stay at Mercedes beyond 2026. The confirmation of his contract had been delayed for months by tense negotiations in which Toto Wolff wanted to keep the door open for Verstappen, and Russell needed to secure his future.

It was Russell himself who revealed everything in an interview with The Telegraph. His statement made the rounds of the paddock within hours.

This so-called "1+1" contract is relatively common in Formula 1. But it takes on a particular dimension in this precise context. Because the target Russell must hit to trigger automatic renewal is tied to his position in the 2026 drivers' championship. And because that same summer window is the moment when Verstappen could also activate his own exit clause at Red Bull.

The exact details remain confidential, but several sources close to the matter have confirmed the general structure to ESPN and other specialist media. Russell has a guaranteed contract for the entire 2026 season. For 2027, an automatic renewal clause activates if he achieves a defined performance level.

What does Russell say about this clause?

Russell was very clear in an interview with BBC Sport, a few weeks after the original revelation. Asked about the possibility of Verstappen arriving at Mercedes in 2027, he replied with a displayed confidence but a transparency that is rare in the paddock.

The key sentence is the last one. The clause is based on the 2026 championship. Russell currently sits 2nd with 80 points, 20 behind Antonelli. He is well placed to trigger his automatic renewal. But the F1 summer is still some way off. And the calendar will intersect precisely with the window in which Verstappen could also decide his own future.

The other side of this story is just as compelling. Max Verstappen is contracted to Red Bull until the end of 2026. But his deal reportedly contains an exit clause that can be activated under precise conditions.

According to several well-informed sources, Verstappen can leave Red Bull as early as the summer of 2026 if he finds himself outside the top two of the drivers' championship at the mid-season break. He would then have from early August to late October to make his decision and make it official. With just 26 points after four races and a suffering Red Bull car, Verstappen currently sits 7th in the championship. The clause could therefore be activatable as early as July.

The retirement threat

What complicates the equation even further is that Verstappen himself raised the threat of retiring after 2026 at the Japanese Grand Prix. The four-time champion, visibly frustrated by the difficulties of the RB22 and the regulation changes, hinted that Formula 1 might no longer be his absolute priority if conditions did not improve.

Toto Wolff responded to these rumours with unusual candour. But how much is Wolff's word worth in this precise context?

Asked about the rumours linking Verstappen to Mercedes for 2027, Toto Wolff responded in March 2026 with a formulation that would have been definitive in any other sporting paddock.

The problem is that Wolff has already said exactly this kind of thing before actively courting Verstappen in 2025. The paddock remembers the private dinners in Sardinia, the yachts moored side by side, the late-night calls during Red Bull's internal crisis. Wolff confirmed himself that he spoke to Verstappen's management in 2025 and that he did not want to miss such an opportunity in the future. This time he says he does not want to poach him. But the two yachts were spotted side by side again this winter.

The GT3 programme: the bridges are already built

There is also a strong signal that many may have underestimated. Verstappen is racing a Mercedes-AMG GT3 Evo in 2026 under the banner of Mercedes-AMG Team Verstappen Racing. This multi-year partnership, personally blessed by Wolff, places Verstappen in the Mercedes orbit before any F1 seat becomes available. The Nürburgring 24 Hours dates were even adjusted to accommodate Verstappen's schedule. Wolff could not hide his delight: "Max driving a Mercedes is something we enjoy." The message was crystal clear.

The paddock cannot help thinking about Lewis Hamilton. In 2024, Hamilton had a Mercedes contract. With clauses. Which ultimately allowed him to leave for Ferrari. The same Toto Wolff had said at the time that Hamilton was indispensable to Mercedes. We know how that ended.

Russell knows this better than anyone. He watched from up close how Wolff handles complicated contract situations. He himself nearly lost his seat to Verstappen in 2025. He managed to negotiate this performance clause precisely to avoid finding himself in the same position as Hamilton.

• Hamilton 2024: Mercedes contract with exit clause, Wolff had said he wanted to keep him. Hamilton went to Ferrari. Both benefited.
• Russell 2026: Mercedes contract with renewal clause, Wolff says he does not want Verstappen. The situation is different but the mechanisms are similar.
• Verstappen 2026: Red Bull contract with exit clause activatable in the summer if he is outside the top two. Red Bull is struggling. The clause could activate soon.
• The calendar: The F1 summer break falls in August. That is exactly the moment when both clauses could activate simultaneously. The timing is perfect for an earthquake.

What Russell's form is really saying

With 80 points from four races, Russell is in the best form of his career. He is 2nd in the championship, consistent, mature and visibly thriving in the W16. His 2025 performances were excellent, bringing two wins and a run of podiums. If the 2026 season continues on this trajectory, the clause will activate naturally and the Verstappen question will not even arise. That is what Russell says. That is what the paddock hopes to see confirmed on track in the coming months.