The 2026 season has delivered one of the most dominant starts in recent memory. Kimi Antonelli has won three of the first four races, setting youth records in rapid succession. But the championship standings tell a more nuanced story than simple Mercedes dominance.

20 races remain on the 2026 calendar. With 26 points per victory, each Grand Prix can change everything. Russell is still in title contention. Norris and McLaren, with their near entirely rebuilt car since Miami, can string results together. And Verstappen on a pure braking circuit is always a threat.

The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve is one of the most distinctive tracks on the calendar. Built on the Île Notre-Dame in the middle of the St Lawrence River, this semi-urban circuit has a unique character: long straights followed by violent braking zones, technical chicanes that punish mistakes and a Wall of Champions that has ended the victory hopes of many favourites.

The Wall of Champions: The Permanent Threat

At the exit of the final chicane before the finish line sits the most feared point on the circuit: the Wall of Champions. This inner barrier has ended the victory hopes of Damon Hill, Michael Schumacher, Jacques Villeneuve and many others at their very last attempt. On this circuit, pushing the limit too hard too late can destroy everything in the final split second. That is the lesson drivers learn or relearn at Montreal, race after race.

Why This Circuit Is Different

Montreal is one of the rare circuits where the car setup cannot satisfy all demands simultaneously. A setup optimised for the long straights sacrifices traction in the chicanes. A setup tuned for the braking zones loses top speed. Teams that find the best compromise often win before the race has even started. And this year, with the new 2026 F1 cars and their complex energy management, that compromise is even harder to find.

The Canadian GP is the second Grand Prix after Miami to benefit from McLaren's massive upgrades. Andrea Stella had stated it clearly: Miami and Canada would see a near entirely rebuilt MCL40. The first results in Miami were encouraging: a double podium for Norris and Piastri in second and third.

But on a circuit like Montreal, the MCL40 could express itself even better. The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve has historically suited McLaren, a team whose cars have always been strong on low-downforce circuits requiring straight-line speed and braking precision. If the upgrades have addressed the traction problem that handicapped McLaren since the start of the season, Norris and Piastri could be the genuine favourites this weekend.

Max Verstappen has endured a nightmare start to the season. Three spins or start incidents, a car that is difficult to balance, a penalty in Monaco. The four-time champion finds himself 7th in the championship with just 26 points, 74 behind Antonelli.

But Montreal is a circuit that suits him particularly well. The four-time champion has a very strong relationship with pure braking tracks where confidence under late braking makes all the difference. That is precisely his most recognised quality among his engineers: the ability to brake later than everyone else without losing control. If Red Bull has brought the right setup and the new technical director poached from Ferrari is beginning to make his mark, Canada could be Verstappen's wake-up race.

Can Antonelli be stopped? The question deserves a serious answer. In Monaco, for the first time since the start of the season, the prodigy from Bologna showed a limitation: his car and he were not comfortable on that slow and twisting circuit. He finished in the points but far from the podium.

Montreal is a very different circuit from Monaco. The long straights and violent braking zones suit the W16 far better than the narrow streets of the Principality. Antonelli should find his usual level. But with McLaren on a full upward trajectory and Russell still just 20 points behind him internally, this weekend will measure the true depth of Mercedes' advantage.

Russell: The Most Dangerous Opponent

Do not forget George Russell. The Briton is only 20 points behind Antonelli in the championship, and he has shown on several occasions this season that he can beat his team-mate in a single race. On a circuit like Montreal where both Mercedes cars will have similar performance levels, the internal battle between the two Silver Arrows will be fascinating to watch.